Currently released so far... 3891 / 251,287
Articles
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Amsterdam
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lagos
Mission USNATO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Browse by tag
AF
ASEC
AE
AR
AG
AJ
AFIN
AU
AM
APER
ABUD
ATRN
AORC
AEMR
AMGT
ACOA
AEC
AO
AX
AMED
ADCO
AODE
AFFAIRS
AC
AS
AL
ASIG
ABLD
AA
AFU
ASUP
AROC
ATFN
AGMT
CJAN
CH
CU
CASC
CVIS
CMGT
CO
CI
CLINTON
CIA
CG
CF
CN
CS
CAN
COUNTER
CIS
CA
CBW
CM
CE
CONDOLEEZZA
COE
CR
CY
CD
CTM
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CPAS
CWC
CT
CKGR
CB
CACS
COM
CDG
CJUS
CARSON
COUNTERTERRORISM
CACM
CDB
CV
EU
EFIN
EG
ETTC
EINV
ENRG
EI
ECPS
EINT
ECON
EIND
ETRD
EPET
EUN
EZ
EMIN
ELAB
EAID
EAGR
ET
EC
EAIR
ENVR
ES
ECA
EWWT
ER
ELTN
EFIS
EN
EXTERNAL
ECIN
EINVETC
ENIV
EINN
ENGR
EUR
ESA
ENERG
ELECTIONS
ECUN
EINVEFIN
ECIP
EINDETRD
EUC
EREL
IR
IZ
IS
IT
INRB
IRAJ
IN
INRA
INRO
IO
IC
ID
IIP
IAEA
ITPHUM
IV
IPR
IWC
IQ
ICTY
ISRAELI
IRAQI
ICRC
ICAO
IMO
IF
ILC
IEFIN
INTELSAT
IL
IA
IBRD
IMF
ITALY
ITALIAN
INTERPOL
KE
KTFN
KDEM
KJUS
KNNP
KGHG
KZ
KIPR
KWBG
KIRF
KPAO
KDRG
KHLS
KCRM
KSCA
KPAL
KISL
KG
KACT
KN
KS
KGIC
KRAD
KU
KCOM
KBIO
KMCA
KCOR
KV
KHDP
KTIP
KVPR
KDEV
KWMN
KSPR
KTIA
KHIV
KPRP
KAWC
KOLY
KCIP
KCFE
KOCI
KMDR
KPKO
KTDB
KMRS
KFRD
KLIG
KBCT
KICC
KGIT
KSTC
KUNR
KPAK
KNEI
KSEP
KPOA
KFLU
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KOMC
KAWK
KO
KTER
KSUM
KHUM
KRFD
KBTR
KDDG
KWWMN
KFLO
KSAF
KBTS
KPRV
KMPI
KNPP
KNAR
KWMM
KERG
KFIN
KTBT
KCRS
KRVC
KR
KPWR
KWAC
KMIG
KSEC
KIFR
KDEMAF
KGCC
KPIN
KNUC
KPLS
KIRC
MARR
MOPS
MU
MASS
MY
MNUC
MCAP
MA
MO
MTCRE
MG
MASC
MX
MCC
MZ
ML
MK
MTRE
MP
MIL
MDC
MTCR
MAR
MEPI
MRCRE
MI
MT
MR
MQADHAFI
MD
MAPS
MUCN
MPOS
MEPP
MOPPS
MAPP
PGOV
PREL
PINR
PO
PINS
PTER
PK
PHUM
PARM
PL
PE
PREF
PHSA
PBTS
PGOF
PROP
PARMS
PA
PM
PMIL
PTERE
POL
PF
PALESTINIAN
PY
PGGV
PNR
POV
PAK
PAO
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PNAT
PROV
PEL
POLITICS
PEPR
PSI
PINT
PSOE
PU
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PBIO
PECON
POGOV
PINL
PKFK
SU
SA
SY
SP
SNAR
SENV
SCUL
SW
SOCI
SF
SO
SR
SG
SMIG
SL
SN
SHUM
SZ
SYR
ST
SANC
SC
SAN
SIPRS
SK
SH
SI
STEINBERG
UK
UNSC
UG
US
UZ
UP
UNO
UNMIK
UY
UN
UNGA
UE
UNESCO
UAE
UNEP
USTR
UNHCR
UNDP
UNHRC
USAID
UNCHS
UNAUS
USUN
USEU
UV
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 07TELAVIV3385, PDAS MCNERNEY'S OCTOBER 24 MEETING AT THE ISRAELI
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #07TELAVIV3385.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
07TELAVIV3385 | 2007-11-29 07:07 | 2011-02-03 21:09 | SECRET | Embassy Tel Aviv |
VZCZCXRO8518
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK
DE RUEHTV #3385/01 3330707
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 290707Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4363
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RHEBAAA/USDOE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 003385
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017
TAGS: PREL KNNP MNUC PTER IR IS
SUBJECT: PDAS MCNERNEY'S OCTOBER 24 MEETING AT THE ISRAELI
MFA ON IRAN: THE INTERNAL SITUATION (CABLE 1 OF 5)
Classified By: Marc J. Sievers, Political Counselor.
Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d).
-------
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (S) In an October 24 meeting at the MFA, an Israeli
government interagency team led by MFA Deputy Director
General (Strategic Affairs) Miriam Ziv shared its assessment
of the internal situation in Iran with a U.S. team led by ISN
PDAS Patricia McNerney. The Israeli side made the following
points: (A) it is not clear what the replacement of Iranian
nuclear negotiator Larijani means; (B) sanctions are having
an effect in Iran, and increasing pressure on Ahmadinejad and
his supporters; and (C) Ahmadinejad is facing obstacles in
his effort to garner support from leaders and marginalized
peoples in Latin America, Asia and other parts of the
developing world. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (S) On October 24, ISN PDAS Patricia McNerney, ISN/RA
Middle East Team Leader Kurt Kessler, ISN/CPI Director Tony
Foley, and NEA Iran Desk Officer Sean Misko and embassy
POL-MIL officer met at the Israeli MFA with an interagency
team led by MFA DDG for Strategic Affairs, Miriam Ziv, to
exchange information on Iran and its nuclear program. The
Israeli team included representatives from the MFA, the Prime
Minister's office, Israeli Defense Intelligence (IDI), and
the Mossad. This is the first of three reporting cables
reporting on the discussions at the MFA, and concerns the
internal situation in Iran and the effects of sanctions.
Septels will review discussions in the MFA on the
technological stage of Iran's nuclear program, and ongoing
and future counter-terror finance efforts, as well as
discussions with Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC)
officials about Iran and the IAEA.
¶3. (S) Ambassador Ziv opened the meeting by noting that she
had met with four of the P-5 ambassadors (Russia, France, UK,
China) in New York on the margins of the UN General Assembly.
She was, she said, disturbed to learn that there was no
activity going on in New York with respect to a third UNSC
sanctions resolution on Iran.
-----------------------------------------
UNCLEAR WHAT LARIJANI'S REPLACEMENT MEANS
-----------------------------------------
¶4. (S) An official from the MFA's Center for Strategic
Research (the equivalent of State's INR Bureau) then provided
his analysis of Iran's change in its nuclear negotiator. He
said that the change left Israel with more questions than
answers. Iran, nevertheless, remains able to convey to the
rest of the world that it is cooperating, as the new
negotiator had already met with EU High Represenative Javier
Solana. In the MFA's view, Iran is "going through the
motions" to suggest that everything is fine. Iran's new
negotiator reportedly stated that negotiations with Solana
would continue into November. Larijani's resignation was a
surprise for Israel. There appears to be no urgency on the
Iranian side. The Iranians know that nothing will happen
until the beginning of next year. Negotiations with Iran in
the IAEA context will go on as if nothing had happened.
¶5. (S) The MFA official suggested that the change in
negotiators may have been connected with Russian President
Putin's October 15-17 visit to Iran to attend the Caspian
Summit. The MFA official claimed that Iran expected that
Putin would "bring something good with him." Instead, Putin
met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and only proposed
supplying power plants to Iran, and did not discuss
enrichment. He observed that there was no statement about
the Bushehr reactor. Ziv recalled that the Russian
ambassador to the UN had told her before PM Olmert's visit to
Russia that Putin would tell Olmert that Russia would not
supply Iran with fuel for the Bushehr reactor. PM Olmert
subsequently declared in public that the Russians would not
provide the fuel for the Bushehr reactor. MFA
Nonproliferation and Counterterrorism Department Deputy
Director Jonathan Miller added that a Russian embassy
official told him that the contracts over Bushehr need to be
"re-done," that this will take a long time, and that fuel
supply is not even "on the table" for now. The Mossad
representative said that the Russians have decided to supply
fuel, but are in a "wait-and-see" mode, and that it will not
happen for a few months. An IDI officer said that work on
TEL AVIV 00003385 002 OF 003
the contracts continues, and that the IAEA is involved in the
arrangements, such as the sealing of the fuel.
¶6. (S) Returning to Larijani's resignation, the MFA official
said that it may be part of an escalating power struggle
among Iran's conservative elites. The signals it sends are
unclear. The MFA noted that Jalili is reportedly a close
associate and supporter of Ahmadinejad. While Ahmadinejad
does not control the Supreme Council for National Security
(SCNS), the appointment of Jalili as SCNS secretary -- a
crucial position -- was significant and appeared to reflect
fallout in the relationship between Ahmadinejad and Larijani.
As to the question, "Why Jalili?" the MFA official noted
that he is inexperienced and young, and wondered out loud
whether Jalili is just a front man. He noted that several
high-ranking conservatives, including former Iranian FM
Veleyati, have criticized the change. Former Iranian
President Rafsanjani's brother also criticized Larijani's
removal. The MFA official wondered whether it meant that
Rafsanjani is coming out of silence and positioning himself
for a comeback. The MFA official continued by suggesting
that Ahmadinejad was dissatisfied that Larijani had been
appointed as Iran's nuclear negotiator. Larijani had
unsuccessfully run against Ahmadinejad in the 2005
presidential elections, and was appointed by Iran's Supreme
Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. He also observed that there were
conflicting rumors -- one, that Larijani remains in the
system, with Jalili merely serving as a go-between; and the
other, that Larijani and his entire team have been removed.
¶7. (S) Discussion then led to the view that Iran's Supreme
Leader is strengthening Ahmadinejad, and that the hard-line
conservatives are gaining power at the expense of
traditionalists like Larijani. Jalili seems to be more of a
revolutionary, like Ahmadinejad. The view also emerged that
external factors appear to be the primary driver on the Iran
nuclear issue. The resignation may simply reflect a change
in tactics as opposed to policy. All agreed that Jalili
would probably be more difficult to negotiate with than
Larijani.
--------------------------------------
SANCTIONS ARE HAVING AN EFFECT IN IRAN
--------------------------------------
¶8. (S) The MFA official then observed that it appears that
some of Iran's assumptions have been shaken. First, two
Chapter VII UNSC sanctions resolutions have been passed
unanimously. Secondly, internal opposition to Ahmadinejad's
hard-line faction appears to feel more empowered, as
demonstrated by more vocal criticism of Ahmadinejad's
policies. Indeed, the unanimous adoption of UNSCR 1737 led
to a flood of public criticism of Ahmadinejad. The MFA
official assessed that the sustained criticism of
Ahmadinejad's handling of the economy suggests that sanctions
are working in Iran. Ahmadinejad had recently run into
protests at two universities, and appears to be losing his
popularity among Iran's lower class. Anecdotal information
shows that the public is still dissatisfied with the fuel
rationing, especially as cheap fuel was a promise of the
Revolution, and one of Ahmadinejad's election promises. The
MFA official assessed that the fuel rationing was the result
of long-standing USG sanctions and fears within the regime
that the West would attempt to restrict Iran's import of
refined petroleum. (COMMENT: This differs from the USG
assessment that Iran's fuel rationing program is the result
of Iran's limited domestic refining capacity. END COMMENT.)
¶9. (S) The MFA official said that sanctions are also
increasing the risk premium associated with investments in
Iran. Ahmadinejad had recently dismissed the head of Iran's
Central Bank, who was not appointed by Ahmadinejad, as well
as the oil minister. The MFA official assessed that the high
profile personnel changes may be a response to public
criticism of Ahmadinejad's handling of the economy. The
official added that Ahmadinejad believes he should do "more
of the same" on the economy, even if it does not work.
Despite these challenges, Israeli analysts were originally of
the view that Ahmadinejad was losing power. His ability to
shuffle personnel and insert supporters into high-level
positions in key ministries, however, suggests that
Ahmadinejad may be adapting and learning how to cope.
¶10. (S) The Mossad official said that Iran's middle class and
bazaar merchants are running into real problems at Iran's
banks. Even simple transactions through Dubai carry an
TEL AVIV 00003385 003 OF 003
increased risk premium between 20-40 percent. The Israeli
MFA official also noted that problems are cropping up in
Iran's investment sector, with many companies having doubts
which in turn have led to hesitation in doing business.
There is an increasing view among the bazaaris that something
must be done about the sanctions. As a result, Iran is
forced to look for new partners in Europe and Asia.
¶11. (S) The IDI officer observed that Ahmadinejad made a huge
mistake when he lowered interest rates below the rate of
inflation. He cautioned, however, that Ahmadinejad could
survive. He could say that his ministers have made mistakes,
dismiss them, and continue with his own policies.
¶12. (S) Regarding sanctions, the IDI officer observed that
half a year later, they are having a psychological effect
across the board. Advisors on the Iranian economy, in
addition to bankers, are now feeling the pressure. Even the
Supreme Leader might see problems and decide that something
must be done. At the same time, Ahmadinejad disputes this.
He feigns confidence by asserting that the Hidden Imam will
return and solve all of Iran's problems.
--------------------------------------------- -------
AHMADINEJAD FINDING IT HARD TO GARNER SUPPORT ABROAD
--------------------------------------------- -------
¶13. (S) Regarding Ahmadinejad's efforts to build alliances
with leaders in Latin America and Asia, the MFA official said
that he has reached out to the developing world through his
outlandish statements on the Holocaust. He is viewed as a
hero by some in the Arab world, and leftists in Latin America
support him. The problem for Ahmadinejad, the official
observed, is that the friction between the Sunnis and Shia is
at its height due to Iraq. Leaders of the Arab world are
also worried that Hizballah might steal the show in Lebanon.
Ahmadinejad is working hard but is facing obstacles in
developing diplomatic support for his stance. The IDI
officer said that Ahmadinejad is having problems getting
support from "people in the street" in Latin America. Those
people do not share his comparison of the Iranian Revolution
and their revolutions. According to the MFA official, the
Iranian Government recently hosted a conference in Tehran
aimed at comparing the Latin American and Iranian
revolutions. One of the invited guests was Che Guevara's
daughter, who used her speech to criticize the Iranian
Revolution and make clear that her father's ideas were very
different from those propagated by Iran's revolutionary
mullahs. Some of the Latin American leaders are also wary of
his attempts to reach out to their peoples. They see it as a
challenge to their power. The IDI officer said Israel is
concerned about "opaque Hizballah / Al Qods Force activity"
in Latin America. He did not elaborate.
¶14. (S) Discussion then turned to public diplomacy, and the
success Israel has had with its Farsi-language Radio Israel
broadcasts into Iran. The MFA official said that pressure is
increasing on Tehran, and that this is evidenced by more
criticism of the regime on blog sites, and the expansion of
criticism into new areas.
¶15. (U) This cable has not been reviewed by ISN PDAS Patricia
McNerney.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
MORENO